When They Tell You The Science Is In, It Never Is

[Aloysius]

Certainly not so in the Australian government. Linky. Can't have carbon trading because it was Labor's idea...  :blink: 


 


Calling students poor in STEM isn't elitism, it's supposed to be a wake up call...

Boo hoo!


Myrants you have politicised the argument a sure sign of an unsure poster.


Take it away from facts by introducing emotional claims - hey - works for some!


You add to that a feeble attempt to ascribe failure of one political party to follow the elitist policies of another as being somehow less than appropriate.


Hello - we have elections in this country - that means that the coalition party took to a general election a policy to ditch the ALP energy policy.


The coalition won a significant mandate for that policy.


But elitists do not accept the voice of the untermenschen do they?


Aàaaaah, elitists are people too you know!!!

[treblid]

Hello - we have elections in this country - that means that the coalition party took to a general election a policy to ditch the ALP energy policy.

Let's see now.. An entire generation of young minds who are not good in STEM... Would you trust their votes? (Just look at the US).

 

The coalition won a significant mandate for that policy.

Turnbull is hanging by a thread. His rehash of the carbon tax got shot down in a hurry - he is being controlled by faceless men unfortunately.

 

But elitists do not accept the voice of the untermenschen do they?


Aàaaaah, elitists are people too you know!!!

What about people who don't accept the voice of scientists, whose opinions are based on proper analysis from solid data?

 

Glad you're not in the camp that claimed 1 million year old ice cores can't be a thing because the world is only 4000 years old.

[Aloysius]

Your every post reeks of superiority and elitism Mirants.

 

Just so you understand:

 

Facts are facts, science is science - opinions are conjecture.

 

Anyone can have an opinion - but that will never make it a fact.

 

When further science is "in" we may decide that the "opinion" is now a fact.

 

Much of the problem in the climate change area - which very few deny - the climate has always changed - but much of the problem arises from vested scientific and political  elites who call opinions facts, modelling facts etc.

 

Sceptics question this step beyond science and into opinion.

 

And who can blame them the claims come thick and fast some born out by subsequent science - some not.

 

It can be a bit of a raffle when one bases ones faith in unproven opinion.

 

examples:

 

The many claims of Tim Flannery which failed to materialise.

 

Global warming became climate change in the public debate - purely because when the warming stopped previous hypotheses were demonstrably erroneous.

[treblid]

Don't know about elitism Aloy.. Looking at your response, I seem to get a vibe that you believe modelling is voodoo. And the only reason for that is you don't know what modelling actually is.

 

Is that what you see as elitism? I would hope not. I can try and explain how it works, all you need to do is tell me all the doubts that you have and I'd try to help you out.


Here's something to start with: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scientific_modelling

 

Note modelling is used in many fields. Treasury for one uses economic models, RBA use some form of models to capture the state of health of the Australian economy. If you reckon the climate models are wrong, have a look at the ones by the treasury. Your arguments about conspiracies may well ring true there.  :wacky:

[treblid]

Food for thought, from NZ: Linky

 

So early this year Australia killed the division

It was originally believed that up to 350 positions would be lost — mostly in climate change monitoring and modelling — with Marshall saying at the time that the agency’s focus would move to mitigation and adaptation.

That's Greg Hunt saying we already know the climate is changing, so let's fire these people and "refocus" on mitigation and adaptation.

 

Few months later, a back flip

“Putting back 15 of the jobs cut under this government is a start, but if Greg Hunt were serious he’d reverse the funding cuts in full.”

 

Too little too late. Other countries will no doubt pick up the slack, but here's to yet another industry this government has destroyed.

 

Source

[POWERZONE]

Polar bear and wild reindeer decline worsening as climate change continues to melt Arctic ice: study

 

The polar bear research was drawn from new satellite data documenting a loss of Arctic sea ice from 1979 to 2015 and forming the basis of projections in further declines of both ice and bears over the coming decades.

 

Big article > http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-12-13/polar-bear-decline-to-worsen-thanks-to-climate-change/8116722 :)

 

Presumably satellite data could be free of conjecture, superiority and elitism?

 

Maybe not, after all they're 400k's plus above everyone else

[Aloysius]

Why not ???

 

it's satellite technology telling us about the masive growth in antarctic ice - be happy the antarctic has always been bigger than the arctic - it's got land under it!!!!

 

I see it as a net gain!

 

Don't know about elitism Aloy.. Looking at your response, I seem to get a vibe that you believe modelling is voodoo. And the only reason for that is you don't know what modelling actually is.

 

Is that what you see as elitism? I would hope not. I can try and explain how it works, all you need to do is tell me all the doubts that you have and I'd try to help you out.

Here's something to start with: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scientific_modelling

 

Note modelling is used in many fields. Treasury for one uses economic models, RBA use some form of models to capture the state of health of the Australian economy. If you reckon the climate models are wrong, have a look at the ones by the treasury. Your arguments about conspiracies may well ring true there.  :wacky:

 

 

 

So - your highlighted "claim" that this poster does not understand what modelling is once again trumpets your elite status - in your own mind - that you "know stuff" and others do not. :notworthy:  :notworthy:

 

That is a pretty damned fine example of what elitism is, thank you for clarifying it!!!!! :notworthy:

 

Listen Myrantz I do not denigrate modelling per se - I denigrate modelling that is politically warped.

 

Do not put words in my mouth - If you do not understand the bleeding obvious cry out for help. :Hug:

 

Modelling  - it's neither good or bad, but just like anything else - think explosives - it can be used well or it can be used ill.

 

Get it?

 

Why am I unhopeful?

[treblid]

Hey guys!

Ain't no climate warming in Melbourne this Summer!

Got our trusty gas heater firing now, almost mid December.

Try that in your climate warming model.

LinkY

 

Hope you're the only one firing your gas heater... It's freezing where you are at 36.3 degrees  :kosa:.... 

On Tuesday, Melbourne exceeded its forecast maximum by two degrees, with the mercury hitting 36.3 degrees at 4.30pm.

 

Oh no, the modelling was wrong! Actual weather is actually 2 degrees warmer than the forecast. Heaven forbids, can we now claim the climate deniers are fudging the data, manipulate the models to make it appear the world is cooling by 2 degrees? :Whistle:

 

:Talking:  :Talking:  :Talking:

[treblid]

Modelling  - it's neither good or bad, but just like anything else - think explosives - it can be used well or it can be used ill.

Forget about your mouth, look at your poor foot instead. The way you keep shooting yourself in the foot I feel bad for it.

 

Go back to that article, and look at the "evaluating a model". Your conspiracy claims that models can be used/manipulated to push political agenda can be outright dismissed as a conspiracy if you understand that section...

 

Basically that's what Brian Cox tried to explain to the senator... That's what NASA is trying to explain to the senator. You may well not believe Brian Cox, or Gavin Schmidt (Both are PhDs)...


But surely, you can believe me? We known each other for 10 years or so now havn't we? Have I ever been wrong?  :laugh: (Or more correctly, when I made a mistake, did I ever not admit one? eace

[POWERZONE]

Why not ???
 
it's satellite technology telling us about the masive growth in antarctic ice - be happy the antarctic has always been bigger than the arctic - it's got land under it!!!!
 
I see it as a net gain!

Only trouble is there's a rise in sea levels every year.

There must be a net loss from somewhere else.

[Aloysius]

So you dispute the science that says the antarctic ice is growing?

 

As for seas rising - OK - at rates considerably less than the rates  "modelled"

 

Sea levels just like climate are not static, I could take you to ancient beaches that are over a hundred feet above present sea levels.

[Aloysius]

Why not test this yourself? Put two cups into your freezer, one with hot water, and the other at room temperature. Which one turns into ice first?

 

See about :lol:

 

Modelling is not new. It's used in other fields too, say economics. All the ABS statistics you see is a form of modelling. How good/bad the economy is doing is the output from a model.

 

Are there economics sceptics? If so, what is their conspiracy theory?

 

You should go on Q&A.. That'd be fun...  Oh wait dejavu...

 

See full episode here.

 

 

 

The thought occurs Myrantz that Antarctica is not a fridge, that the ice there begins as snow, there are no cups to be found.

 

The point of your basic science 101 lesson is?

 

Your breath taking elitism appears ill founded.

 

Meanwhile:

 

 

Sydney on track to smash 148-year December temperature record

Read more at http://www.9news.com.au/wild-weather/201...TOfLOpt.99

 

 

Oh what can this mean "Global Warming"?

 

If it does it's taken 148 years to get back to 19th century levels.

 

 

But you are correct when you retort - "it doesn't mean that at all"

 

But us elite folks know that the common folks are going to see it as proof of warming.

 

the majority is not an indicator of verity frequently the reverse is true.

 

I'm just glad that we know better! :dance: 

[POWERZONE]

As I'm not a scientist I'm not in a position to either dispute or confirm any science.

Just using figures as reported. If the sea levels are rising to any degree and the antarctic ice is growing then there must a another area where the ice is melting with the net result being a loss of ice globally.

I suggested maybe it's from Greenland in an earlier post.
 

Sydney on track to smash 148-year December temperature record

Read more at http://www.9news.com.au/wild-weather/201...TOfLOpt.99

Oh what can this mean "Global Warming"?

If it does it's taken 148 years to get back to 19th century levels.

It also means it's been hotter than at any time in the last 147 years

[treblid]

Just using figures as reported. If the sea levels are rising to any degree and the antarctic ice is growing then there must a another area where the ice is melting with the net result being a loss of ice globally.

Here's the reason: Linky

 

As the ocean warms, the density decreases and thus even at constant mass the volume of the ocean increases. This thermal expansion (or steric sea level rise) occurs at all ocean temperatures and is one of the major contributors to sea level changes during the 20th and 21st centuries. Water at higher temperature or under greater pressure (i.e., at greater depth) expands more for a given heat input, so the global average expansion is affected by the distribution of heat within the ocean. Salinity changes within the ocean also have a significant impact on the local density and thus local sea level, but have little effect on global average sea level change.

 

And herein lies the unknown.

The rate of climate change depends strongly on the rate at which heat is removed from the ocean surface layers into the ocean interior; if heat is taken up more readily, climate change is retarded but sea level rises more rapidly. Climate change simulation requires a model which represents the sequestration of heat in the ocean and the evolution of temperature as a function of depth.

We don't really know much about this, at least I don't. Apparently it takes about 2000 years for the water to "cycle" across earth (i.e. travel from the surface to the depths and back again). As such, we don't really fully understand what the consequences are, only that it will take some time to happen. 

 

Another problem is the difference in surface temperature and depth temperature is going to create a in-balance, and I'm not aware of any models (or much work on this).. Usually these studies will be initiated by students who are doing post grad.. Not seeing a lot of people taking these programs with the industry in such gray waters right now.

 

It's not just difference in depth (this is more long term concern). The short term concern is the difference in surface temperature from the equator to the poles is also creating some serious storm events, as well as droughts.

 

Note also the difference in wording of the article linked above, versus the words used by politicians and journalists. Scientists are very measured and use words like "while the evidence is still incomplete", the phrases use by rat pack and conspiracy nuts are very "black and white".

 

Unfortunately messages from the latter is getting through to the populance because they're simpler to understand and comprehend. When you have a sitting senator who from all appearances cannot grasp the concept of a simple chart, it's not elitism to wonder why Australia has come to this point in just a decade.

[treblid]

Hasn't happen yet (I doubt it will), but the scientists are thinking Science is out...

 

That's what the scientists are thinking anyway... But Science is in - in Canada that is.

 

Link

 

Scientists in the United States are making copies of federal climate and environmental data over fears it could be erased under Donald Trump's administration.

...

It aims to safeguard data "vulnerable under an administration which denies the fact of ongoing climate change" by storing it on an independent server.

 

A bit of background. For some reason any measurements if funded by the US taxpayers are offered free to the world. These include stuffs from the JPL (NASA).. e.g. they have satellites orbiting around the globe measuring tons of stuffs, recent data, plus lots of other historical data...

 

Collectively this is a wealth of information for any conspiracy nut to look up, cross reference and double check to support their claims (but so far none has been able to properly do this AFAIK).

 

Scientists OTOH, use these data to define/refine their models (i.e. they design models, and then use these historical data to check how close these models can be to past historical events..

 

Now there seems to be fear the Trump government may well shut down these data centers. Of course we have no idea if Trump will really do this or not, but an unpredictable president spurs irrationality/paranoia.

[POWERZONE]

With Trump anything could happen. They should throw the photocopies over the wall where they are safe.

[Aloysius]

Here's the reason: Linky

 

 

 

And herein lies the unknown.

 

We don't really know much about this, at least I don't. Apparently it takes about 2000 years for the water to "cycle" across earth (i.e. travel from the surface to the depths and back again). As such, we don't really fully understand what the consequences are, only that it will take some time to happen. 

 

Another problem is the difference in surface temperature and depth temperature is going to create a in-balance, and I'm not aware of any models (or much work on this).. Usually these studies will be initiated by students who are doing post grad.. Not seeing a lot of people taking these programs with the industry in such gray waters right now.

 

It's not just difference in depth (this is more long term concern). The short term concern is the difference in surface temperature from the equator to the poles is also creating some serious storm events, as well as droughts.

 

Note also the difference in wording of the article linked above, versus the words used by politicians and journalists. Scientists are very measured and use words like "while the evidence is still incomplete", the phrases use by rat pack and conspiracy nuts are very "black and white".

 

Unfortunately messages from the latter is getting through to the populance because they're simpler to understand and comprehend. When you have a sitting senator who from all appearances cannot grasp the concept of a simple chart, it's not elitism to wonder why Australia has come to this point in just a decade.

 

 

Yep good post - I agree with you - I must now be elite too

[Aloysius]

Hasn't happen yet (I doubt it will), but the scientists are thinking Science is out...

 

That's what the scientists are thinking anyway... But Science is in - in Canada that is.

 

Link

 

 

 

A bit of background. For some reason any measurements if funded by the US taxpayers are offered free to the world. These include stuffs from the JPL (NASA).. e.g. they have satellites orbiting around the globe measuring tons of stuffs, recent data, plus lots of other historical data...

 

Collectively this is a wealth of information for any conspiracy nut to look up, cross reference and double check to support their claims (but so far none has been able to properly do this AFAIK).

 

Scientists OTOH, use these data to define/refine their models (i.e. they design models, and then use these historical data to check how close these models can be to past historical events..

 

Now there seems to be fear the Trump government may well shut down these data centers. Of course we have no idea if Trump will really do this or not, but an unpredictable president spurs irrationality/paranoia.

 

 

Yep lots of fear being generated it's the modus operandi that seems to provide the results that are sought.

 

Just who does it and why these fears are promulgated is the question.

[treblid]

Yep good post - I agree with you - I must now be elite too

How does that work? Esp when I am not elite?

 

Yep lots of fear being generated it's the modus operandi that seems to provide the results that are sought.

 

Just who does it and why these fears are promulgated is the question.

You reckon the fear is unfounded? Even as a president elect the guy manage to tweet stocks to lose money, who knows what his motives are??

[treblid]

Linky

 

The Trump transition team’s request for the names of all staffers who attended meetings about the social cost of carbon, as well as any Conference of the Parties hosted by the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, suggested to DOE staffers that the team could be looking to fire staffers for their work on climate change or to marginalize their role at the department.

 

Throughout history, as governments change, dodgy departs begin shredding (destroying) data to deter prosecution from the incoming new administration. This is the first time I have heard of people trying to preserve data to deter destruction by a new administration.

Amid this uncertainty about the future of climate science under the new administration, the Washington Post also reported this morning that “scientists have begun a feverish attempt to copy reams of government data onto independent servers in hopes of safeguarding it from any political interference,” including efforts to copy irreplaceable data from the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) at a “guerrilla archiving” event in Toronto, as well as efforts to compile online portals for scientific information.

 

Bush fires that ravage Northern America, as well as parts of Australia. Floods people havn't seen before in a generation... Droughts in Syria that sparked the current tragedies. And yet people can overlook that and use anecdotes like turning on the heater for half a day in summer and say petabytes upon petabytes of data (that's been qualified and analysed) cannot be right. That models that has been proven to be capable of doing hindcasts and forecasts to a high degree of accuracy is somehow witchcraft.


These are the elites that is governing Australia, and the same elites will do the same in America in the new year.